"Impulsando la Dolarización Oficial en los Mercados Emergentes"

martes, 22 de junio de 1999

Francisco Helguera Ramírez

A continuación, un breve análisis del documento titulado "Encouraging the Official Dollarization in Emerging Markets" (Reporte emitido por el Staff de la oficina del Presidente del Comité Económico Conjunto del Senado de los Estados Unidos, Senador Connie Mack. Abril de 1999 ).

Debido a lo extenso del documento original, se evitaron casi totalmente los comentarios, enfatizando, al reproducir partes escogidas del texto, el significado político, financiero, económico y moral del proyecto.

*****

El documento se inicia con un resumen:

SUMMARY

"In many countries that have suffered high inflation and currency devaluations, the U.S. dollar is in widespread circulation as an unofficial currency. People trust the dollar because its long-term record has been among the best in the world. However, few foreign governments have been willing to officially dollarize, that is, replace their domestic currencies with the dollar. One reason is that under current arrangements, if they do so they lose seigniorage--the revenue gained from issuing currency.

This study explores the implications of the United States offering to share seigniorage with countries that officially dollarize and meet certain other requirements. It describes what official dollarization is, how it works, an idea for sharing the seigniorage from the dollar with officially dollarized countries, and the effects of dollarization both on the United States and on dollarized countries.

The study concludes that official dollarization has important benefits for the United States and dollarizing countries alike. Dollarization nearly eliminate the risk of devaluation, making domestic and U.S. investment more secure. In most emerging market countries, official dollarization will also reduce interest rates significantly, boosting their economic growth. Higher growth in other countries ultimately means greater demand for American goods and higher growth in the United States as well. People in many emerging market countries have already voted with their wallets for the dollar. By sharing seigniorage with governments that officially dollarize, the United States will promote growth and financial stability both at home and abroad".

Enseguida, como frase bíblica, el autor del estudio cita: (Pág. 2)

"In the long term, finding ways of bribing people to dollarize, or at least give back the extra currency that is earned when dollarization takes place, ought to be an international priority. For the world as a whole, the advantage of dollarization seems clear to me..." Larry Summers. (1992 )

En la fecha cuando externó este pensamiento, Larry Summers era Sub Secretario del Tesoro. Hoy, Larry Summers es el sucesor de Rubin como Secretario.

El sentido de la frase es claro; el uso de la palabra sobornar me parece infortunado y alarmante.

El autor (o autores) del documento dejan poco a la imaginación y dan mucho que pensar.

El llamado reporte enfatiza las ventajas, haciendo énfasis en aquellas que benefician a los E.U.

Es un punto de vista unilateral, codicioso y amoral. Pero nos da la ventaja de descubrir en el trasfondo del proyecto la amenaza que representa. El resultado no previsto del documento, es informarnos sobre la actitud y propósitos de quienes pretenden la dolarización.

Gira el documento alrededor de la idea de participación del país dolarizado en el señoraje que se genere:

"The idea: The U.S. government will make a standing offer to all qualifying countries. There will no time limit: qualifying countries can join, or quit, at any time. A later section describes the criteria for gaining certification from the U.S. government as a qualifying country. The purpose of the criteria is to be reasonably sure that dollar notes (paper money), rather than the notes of some other currency, will predominate in countries that eliminate their domestic currencies. The United States will accept countries that wish to accept the offer and meet the criteria for certification, but it will not pressure any country to use the dollar." ( La presión vendrá del FMI).

Larry Summers NO es el autor de este documento, pero siendo la reforma a la arquitectura financiera internacional su proyecto consentido, su Pet proyect, es muy probable que haya influido, directa o indirectamente en su elaboración.

Las principales ventajas argumentadas de la dolarización, como lo expresan sus promotores:

1.- Dollarization nearly eliminate the risk of devaluation, making domestic and U.S. investment more secure.

2.- Official dollarization will also reduce interest rates significantly, boosting economic growth.

.( El ejemplo de Argentina no es muy estimulante)

Podrían agregarse el estímulo del ahorro y la estabilidad con relación a las demás economías dolarizadas.

Veamos las desventajas en una relación breve; más que desventajas, yo prefiero hablar de costos, para preguntarnos al final si podemos asumir los costos que representa dolarizar.

Estamos hablando de tres clases de costos: políticos, sociales y financieros .

1.- No se puede ignorar que la moneda es parte integral de la economía de cualquier país.

La moneda propia desaparece y con ella el banco central, en nuestro caso el Banco de Mexico.

Y con el banco central el control de la economía. Ni siquiera le queda la función de prestamista de última instancia, que además, la Reserva Federal de los E.U. claramente dice que NO ASUME.

En oportuno ejemplo, ¿Cuál sería el destino de Serfin y de muchos de los bancos en México hoy?

"Under official dollarization, the Argentine peso, for example, will cease to exist, except perhaps as coins".

Con claridad manifiestan:

"To prevent any misunderstanding, the terms of the standing offer will state that countries accepting it ( the ofert) acknowledge that the Federal Reserve System will not act as a lender of last resort to them, nor will it be obliged to take any but purely domestic considerations into account in formulating monetary policy. That does not mean that the Federal Reserve will ignore conditions in other countries: after all, in its recent policy making it has considered the possible effect on the U.S. economy of currency crises in Asia, Russia, and Brazil--places that are not even dollarized. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's occasional interventions in the foreign-exchange market show that it cares about the exchange rate of the dollar with other currencies, especially the euro and the yen. But countries that become dollarized need to understand from the start that the standing offer applies only to sharing seigniorage. The Federal Reserve will not be a multinational central bank like the European Central Bank."

El control del sistema monetario se cede a la Reserva Federal de los E.U. El país queda rígidamente sujeto a los movimientos y las decisiones del gobierno norteamericano.

Se hace una relación de asuntos a considerar para la dolarización:

"Issues for a dollarizing country:

A country that wants to become officially dollarized will need to consider a number of issues. Among them are:

Whether to continue issuing coins, like Panama, or simply use U.S. coins, like Micronesia.

Whether the existing foreign reserves of the central bank are adequate for dollarization.

If reserves are inadequate, how to obtain additional reserves--by selling domestic assets of the central bank or government, borrowing, etc."

Por supuesto, debe controlar que la moneda local realmente desaparezca y no siga circulando.

Y repito, cómo reorganizar los elementos del banco central del país dolarizado, porque la política monetaria se cede a la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos.

También se pregunta: ¿Cómo obtendrá dólares un país que se está dolarizando? Y da la respuesta, obvia, pero que deliberadamente o por ignorancia se evade:

"How a dollarizing country will obtain dollars: To obtain dollar notes and coins from the Federal Reserve System, a dollarizing country will give to the Federal Reserve highly liquid dollar assets of equivalent value from a short list specified by the U.S. government--deposits at the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury securities, or funds at U.S. banks. (The gold that many countries keep on deposit at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York could also be part of the list, although this is a question that requires further thought.) The dollar assets can be given to the Federal Reserve directly or though the intermediary of a bank that specializes in handling dollar notes. The Federal Reserve will only give dollars in exchange for specified dollar assets; it will not simply give dollars away. So, dollarization according to this arrangement requires that a country have 100 percent backing in dollar assets for whatever it dollarizes. Dollarization does not require that a government already have all the necessary assets in dollars before it can even consider starting to dollarize. The government and the central bank can have assets in other currencies, provided they can readily trade them for dollar notes or for assets acceptable to the Federal Reserve. In some countries, domestic-currency assets may have a sufficiently liquid market that the central bank can obtain a substantial amount of dollars by selling them. Again, the U.S. government will have no role in deciding what route a country takes to dollarization; all it will do is certify that a country qualifies for sharing seigniorage.

The dollarizing country will agree with the United States on a date for becoming officially dollarized, which will become the date on which the United States begins crediting to that country a share of seigniorage. By that day, at least 75 percent of domestic currency in circulation must have been exchanged for dollars. From that day on, no new domestic-currency notes and (if applicable) coins will be manufactured or placed into circulation, and the plates and dies used to make them will be destroyed. A threshold of 75 percent seems advisable because it is unrealistic to expect that people will redeem 100 percent of the domestic currency in circulation for dollars. Some notes will be kept by collectors, or will have been lost or destroyed. Substantial rather than total replacement of the monetary base should be the standard for determining that a country is dollarized".

La Reserva Federal sólo dará dólares a cambio de activos específicos, no regalará dólares.

En conclusión, a los argentinos les costará 16 billones de dólares su dolarización. Para los E.U. es la venta de papel impreso cuyo costo sera´ ménos del 2% de su valor nominal, que pagarán integro las naciones que acepten las condiciones de la oferta norteamericana.

Solamente el costo de tinta y papel a cambio de valores, reservas monetarias y oro.

Además, por supuesto, están las condiciones para la participación en el señoraje: la certificación por parte del gobierno de los Estados Unidos. (Pág. 17):

"To be certified, a country will need to satisfy economic, legal and political criteria. Meeting the criteria will not a country a right to seigniorage from dollarizatión: seigniornage will be a gift of de United States government, not entitlement. But it will be a gift that is dispensed according to clear rules established by law (?), not an arbitrary amount that varies according to whims". ( ¿Cuál ley?)

¿A GIFT? ¿Un regalo? ¿Una limosna? ¡La soberbia de estas gentes no tiene límite!

"Economic Criteria:

"From an economic standpoint it may be desirable to open the financial system to foreing participaión before dollarizing, but for political reasons that may be impractical. Countries that have dollarization or currency boards, which in many ways works like dollarization, have found that if their financial systems were iniatially closed, necessity eventually forced them to allow foreign firms, so as to take full adventage of the international pool of investment funds." (Pág. 18).

Legal criteria: The domestic currency must cease to be legal tender, although the government may continue during a grace period afterwards to pay dollars for domestic currency in circulation at the exchange rate it has set. The dollar must have legal tender status, though again, the United States should not pressure any dollarizing country to make the dollar a forced tender. The euro and the yen can be legal tender along with the dollar, for instance, even though the dollar is the dominant currency in circulation.

Should a dollarized country experience a civil war or an invasion there will be rival parties claiming payment of the country's share of seigniorage. Procedures for handling such a possibility should be developed, as the U.S. government has developed them for the general question of diplomatic recognition of governments during civil war or invasion".

¡Conocemos los procedimientos del U.S. goverment.!

"Political criteria: The U.S. government must be convinced that a dollarizing country is acting in good faith, and is not trying to abuse the sharing of seigniorage somehow. It seems desirable for the United States to avoid linking the sharing of seigniorage to unrelated political issues. Dollarization has benefits for the United States even if the Administration or the Congress disagree with the policies of a country that is considering dollarization. Only under carefully specified circumstances, war against the United States being the most obvious example, should a country that has been certified be decertified for failure to meet political criteria.

Maintaining certification: To continue to be certified to share seigniorage from dollarization, a country must continue to meet the criteria, as determined by a periodic review from the U.S. government. The purpose of the review is not to use recertification as a political weapon, but merely to determine whether a country continues to deserve seigniorage because dollars continue to circulate there. As a way of discouraging the Administration from using the threat of decertification as a political weapon, decertified countries can be given the option of appealing decertification to the Congress"

¿Apelar ante un congreso donde no se tiene representación ni simpatias?

Leer este documento debería ser obligatorio para los alumnos de economía y es un deber para políticos, comunicadores y quienes hablan de dolarizar a México.

El documento completo puede consultarse, en la siguiente dirección: www.senate.gov/~jec/dollarization.hpm